The New York Times is warning that the Electoral College map is shifting away from Democrats, reducing the party’s chances of winning the White House in 2032.
If current U.S. population trends continue, with people leaving Democratic-led states for Republican-led states, then the 2030 census could significantly benefit the GOP in the 2032 presidential election, according to the Times’ projections.
For example, Florida and Texas could gain a total of five congressional seats, while Idaho and Utah are expected to each add a seat. Those increases would come at the expense of major Democratic states like California and New York. Minnesota and Pennsylvania could also each lose a seat.
Of all the possible scenarios in the nine battleground states in the 2032 election with current population projections, Democrats would lose about a third of their current winning Electoral College combinations. But for the most feasible winning combinations based on voting behaviors in the 2024 election, out of the Democrats’ 25 most plausible paths to victory last year, there would only be five left.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, Republicans are projected to have three more safe seats from Florida and Texas, and New York would lose one seat more than the Times projected.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said that planning for the next 10 years must start now.
“There’s no doubt about it, and it’s a lot of what I talked about when I ran for chair,” Martin said.
“We have to acknowledge that there’s some of these states that are red that are going to need more resources to essentially help us win down the road.”
The Times’ projection has Florida and Texas gaining millions of residents in the coming years, expanding each state’s population by nearly 13%. Democratic-led Colorado is the fastest-growing blue state and is expected to grow its population by less than 10%. Meanwhile, Illinois and New York are both projected to see population decreases by 2030.
