We’re back hunting for more winners after a tough start to the week. Below, we go over some of our favorite MLB betting picks for Wednesday. Make the wagers below with bonuses on DraftKings and bet365.
- Nick Lodolo: Under 4.5 Strikeouts
- Ryan Gusto Under 14.5 Outs
- Walker Buehler 3+ Earned Runs
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Lodolo Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Box score watchers will scoff at betting under 4.5 strikeouts for Lodolo, but let’s explore this a little further. For starters, we’re getting a great price at +120. At -120 this wouldn’t necessarily be a bet, but the favorable odds make it a +EV wager.
Lodolo has cleared 4.5 K’s in three of his past four starts, but he’s been lucky to do so. His velocity is down this season on his fastball and slider, his two primary pitches. He’s generating the fewest swings and misses of his MLB tenure (10%), while his called strike rate is also at a career-low mark (15.3%).
When opponents are swinging, they’re making quality contact. His hard hit allowed rate has ballooned to 41.3%, which is also a career-worst mark. His K per 9 rate is down 4+ strikeouts from two seasons ago, but his strand rate is up 10%. Regression is coming in that department, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if that happens today.
As for the matchup, the Guardians are not exactly strikeout prone. Cleveland whiffs at a below league average clip, and have dominated Lodolo in the past. Current Guardians hitters are slashing .385/.448/.500 versus Lodolo, with just five strikeouts over 26 at-bats.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Gusto Under 14.5 Outs (+135 at Bet365)
We’re continuing our plus-money theme by betting under 14.5 outs for Ryan Gusto. Box score watchers will love this pick, as Gusto has recorded 13 outs in seven straight starts.
After a respectable month of April, the wheels have fallen off for the 26-year-old. He’s posted a ERA north of 7.00 in May and June, and has struggled mightily with his control. Gusto is averaging a walk per inning over his last six appearances, and gave up 8 hits in his previous start.
As for the matchup with the White Sox, it looks promising on paper but Gusto has already failed in this spot before. He lasted only 0.2 innings when he faced Chicago in May, surrendering three runs, walking two and failing to record a strikeout. MLB betting odds will vary by sportsbook, but we like this on bet365.
MLB Player Prop Pick #3: Buehler 3+ Earned Runs (-120 at DraftKings)
Last, but not least, we’re betting 3+ earned for Walker Buehler tonight in his start against the Rays. Buehler is struggling to keep the ball in the yard this year, allowing five home runs in his last three starts alone. He’s coughed up 10 dingers already this season, and his 19.6% home run per fly ball rate is the worst mark of his career.
To make matters worse, Buehler’s fastball, sinker and knuckle curve velocity are all down this season. As a result, he’s produced just an 8% swing and miss rate, while opponents are making hard contact at a 38% clip.
Life won’t get any easier against Tampa Bay, who rank top-11 in scoring. The Rays lead MLB by a wide margin in stolen bases, earning them top spot in the baserunning value metric over the last month.
