We split our MLB player prop picks on Wednesday to run our weekly record to 5-1. We naturally cashed another wager betting against the woeful Rockies, and online sportsbooks still haven’t adjusted the Phillies prop lines enough to discourage us from going right back to the well.
Betting against Colorado has been a cash cow, especially in games at Coors Field. The Rockies have surrendered 25 runs to Philadelphia through three games this week, and have coughed up90 runs to enemy lineups over their last 10 games at home.
Colorado ranks dead last in ERA, WHIP, and hits allowed by a wide margin, and is sending one of our favorite punching bags to the mound on Thursday.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 22
Nick Castellanos Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-135 at Bet365)
That would be German Marquez, who sports an 8.78 ERA and has yielded 5 or more runs in six of his past seven starts. The right-hander is surrendering hard contact at a 45.4% clip, while allowing a .333/.403/.509 slash line to enemy batters.
Current Philly batters are hitting .333 off him over 117 at-bats, with no player posting more success than Nick Castellanos. The 33-year-old is 5-for-12 all-time against Marquez with a home run and three extra-base hits.
Castellanos has cleared over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI in all three games of this series so far, and we’re betting him to accomplish the feat one more time given this favorable matchup.
Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-135 at Bet365)
Sticking in the same game, we’re also betting the exact same prop for Trea Turner at identical odds. Like Castellanos, Turner has cleared this line in all three games this series, recording 7 hits and scoring 4 runs so far.
The 31-year-old is slashing .458/.480/.750 versus the Rockies in 2025, racking up 11 hits, 5 runs, and 4 RBI. Turner is enjoying a fantastic May to date, hitting .341 over 85 at-bats. He’s a career .356 hitter at Coors Field, with 6 home runs and 29 RBI in 137 at-bats.
Claim the bet365 bonus code TSN365 for a $1,000 Safety Net or $150 bonus on MLB games this week.
Gabriel Arias Under 0.5 Hits (+115 at DraftKings)
For our final selection, we’re going to pick on Cleveland’s Gabriel Arias, just like opposing pitchers have been lately. Arias enters play with only 1 hit in his last 15 at-bats, with a 40%strikeout rate during that stretch. He’s +115 to go hitless against Detroit today, and that’s a price we simply can’t pass up.
The 25-year-old is making hard contact at a sub-30% rate, swinging and missing far too frequently. He’s whiffing on 21.5% of his swings, which is one of the highest marks in baseball.
That’s trouble against the Tigers Jack Flaherty today, who still strikes out hitters at an elite rate.
Flaherty has a K/9 rate of 11 so far in 2025 and has allowed 3 or fewer hits in six of nine starts.
