We’re off to a perfect start to the week in the MLB player props market at a 2-0 sweep on Monday. We capitalized on picking on the Rockies yet again at home, and that’s a strategy we’re not going to deviate from tonight, given who’s taking the ball for Colorado.
Antonio Senzatela will toe the rubber against a Phillies team that absolutely owns them. Multiple Philly batters are batting over .400 against him in a significant sample size, including our favorite target tonight, Trea Turner.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 20
Trea Turner Over 2.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
Turner pounded three hits and drove in two runs in Monday’s 9-3 drubbing of the Rockies. He’sslashing .333/.351/.467 this month, with a home run, 13 runs scored, and 6 RBI. Turner has cleared over 2.5 hits, runs, and RBI eight times already this month, and is a career .352 hitter at Coors Field.
As for the matchup against Senzatela, it’s been a completely one-sided affair. Turner is 7-for-15all-time versus the 30-year-old, boasting a .467/.467/.550 slash line. Senzatela enters play in horrendous form, having already surrendered 24 hits, 18 runs, and 2 home runs in 14 innings this month.
The right-hander’s velocity is down this season across both his fastball and sinker, while his hard-hit rate allowed is through the roof. Senzatela is yielding hard contact at a 49.1% clip, which is one of the worst marks in all of MLB.
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Jesus Luzardo Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-120 at Bet365)
Staying in the same game, we’re going against the grain and fading offense at baseball’s most hitter-friendly park. Although, to be fair, it’s the Rockies putrid offense.
They’ll square off against Philly lefty Jesus Luzardo, who’s in tremendous form. We’re betting he yields under 2.5 earned runs, a feat he’s accomplished in eight of nine starts this season.
Luzardo ranks seventh in ERA and top-40 in WHIP, and the arrow is pointing up on all the advanced metrics.
The southpaw’s velocity is up a full mile per hour on his fastball and sinker over last season, while his slider velocity is up 3 mph. He’s yielding hard contact at just a 28% clip, the second-lowest mark of his six-year career, while his 29.7% swinging strike and called strike rate are the highest of his MLB tenure.
The icing on the cake is that he owns the hitters in the Rockies lineup. Luzardo has held them toa .136/.136/.318 slash line, while posting a 50% strikeout rate.
