Not every fan will enjoy the outcome of the NBA Draft Lottery. But on Monday, talk over the legitimacy of the lottery may have been at an all-time high.
While there’s no factual proof that the NBA plays a role in deciding its draft order, conspiracies ran rampant when the Dallas Mavericks earned the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft on Monday night.
Following a wild past year in which the Mavericks made a run to the Finals, traded their franchise star, much to the dismay of the fanbase, then struggled through injuries to conclude the 2024-25 campaign, the team came away with the right to pick Duke star Cooper Flagg in June. Flagg is considered an elite prospect who could become the next big-time NBA star.
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Dallas made a huge leap from its lottery chances to claim the No. 1 pick. Here’s why some fans were questioning whether the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged on Monday.
MORE: The 11 craziest NBA Draft Lottery conspiracy theories of all time
Mavericks’ No. 1 pick chances
Dallas, which went 39-43 this past season and missed the playoffs, came into Monday with just a 1.8 percent chance to win the No. 1 pick. Utah, Washington and Charlotte all had the best chances at 14 percent.
By winning the lottery, the Mavericks made the biggest lottery leap (10 spots) in history. It was also the first time Dallas has ever won the lottery.
NBA Draft Lottery results
Here’s a full look at the results from Monday’s NBA Draft Lottery:
| Pick | Team |
| 1 | Mavericks |
| 2 | Spurs |
| 3 | 76ers |
| 4 | Hornets |
| 5 | Jazz |
| 6 | Wizards |
| 7 | Pelicans |
| 8 | Nets |
| 9 | Raptors |
| 10 | Rockets (via Suns) |
| 11 | Trail Blazers |
| 12 | Bulls |
| 13 | Hawks (via Kings) |
| 14 | Spurs (via Hawks) |
MORE: How Cooper Flagg could fit with the Mavericks
Is the NBA Draft Lottery rigged?
The NBA Draft Lottery is not rigged, though this year’s results have fueled those conversations.
There are no truthful indications that the NBA’s Draft Lottery is, in any way, fixed by the league. But when a team jumps from 1.8 percent chances to land the No. 1 pick to getting it, fans often question the legitimacy.
The Mavericks’ win had the fourth-lowest odds for a lottery victory ever:
the nba is never beating the rigged allegations pic.twitter.com/mFitmydwoC
— csb (@itsCSB__) May 12, 2025
Dallas’ low chances of winning are a significant reason that fans had some outrage over the lottery results. Teams like the Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets came into the night with the highest chances at 14 percent, but missed out on the top pick.
Another part of the reason fans began suggesting the lottery is rigged is the wild past year the Mavericks have had. After going to the Finals led by Luka Doncic, then trading him in February, Mavericks fans showed how upset they were with general manager Nico Harrison over the past few months. The Mavericks have also had countless injuries in 2024-25, including a torn ACL for star guard Kyrie Irving.
With how Dallas’ franchise had become a target of criticism in recent months while struggling, some fans viewed the Mavericks winning the lottery as the NBA either trying to reward the team for its rough patch, or trying to recapture interest in the franchise as it likely adds Flagg.
Adam Silver – “Let’s just hope there’s no outcome that fans can say is rigged”
Every fan after that outcome – pic.twitter.com/CeTEYb3WWs
— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) May 12, 2025
Another conspiracy theory that made its way around social media Monday was that the Mavericks “sacrificed” their own star, Doncic, to give to the Lakers in exchange for the NBA letting them get Flagg.
Ratings were down, so the NBA gave Luka to the Lakers, and then gave the #1 pick in the NBA Draft to Dallas as compensation. Disgusting corruption.
And you can’t even argue it. The odds are too low of all of this lining up the way it has.
Completely rigged.
— Mitch (@MitchCK_) May 12, 2025
Of course, this is not the first time basketball fans have suggested that the lottery system is rigged. There’s been some outrage from certain franchises throughout the years, from Patrick Ewing going to the Knicks, to the Cavaliers winning the right to draft Irving in 2011 after LeBron James left, to the Pelicans winning the 2019 No. 1 pick after Anthony Davis’ rough exit.
The Cavs won the lotto immediately after LeBron left.
The Pelicans won the lotto immediately after the CP3 trade.
The Pelicans won the lotto again immediately after the AD trade.
The Mavs win it immediately after the Luka trade.You can’t convince me it’s not rigged.
— Chris De Silva (@cdesilva23) May 12, 2025
And it doesn’t exactly help that LeBron James himself hinted at the draft lottery being rigged on his recent “The Pat McAfee Show” appearance. There’s no indication that as a player, James would have any actual inside information about the process within the league, but he thought the chances of him landing in Cleveland were too crazy.
“You know, Patrick Ewing to the Knicks, Derrick Rose to the Bulls,” James said. “I understand the assignment, guys.”
LeBron been said the lottery is rigged lol pic.twitter.com/3WDmTeLAHF https://t.co/Yw7uUpM5vZ
— ²³𝙻𝚎𝙱𝚛𝚘𝚗𝚌𝚑𝚒𝚝𝚒𝚜🏀☄️🌎💞 (@BronGotGame) May 12, 2025
But all of those conspiracy theories have long been debunked by the league and reporters. In fact, the NBA releases video of the ping pong ball process and how the order is selected.
Watch the 2025 #NBADraftLottery Presented By State Farm pic.twitter.com/bL6MMdnFSS
— NBA (@NBA) May 12, 2025
There is also a group of representatives from each lottery team that’s present for the drawings. The list of executives who were in attendance for the drawing in 2025 can be found here. There were also a group of journalists and reporters in attendance for the drawing, including The Salt Lake Tribune’s Andy Larson, who helped debunk the “rigged” rumors:
It just isn’t. I just watched the draw with my own eyes! Unlucky things happen. https://t.co/v2dcDUxpz4
— Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) May 12, 2025
As Yahoo Sports’ Vincent Goodwill pointed out, rigging the NBA Draft lottery is both hard to do and a federal crime.
Mavericks CEO Rick Welts also said Monday that he was in the draft lottery room and was “in charge of the NBA draft lottery 40 years ago when Patrick Ewing won,” also saying he’s “been doing conspiracy theory stories ever since.”
While there are certainly instances of young stars landing with teams that make sense, there hasn’t ever been proof of that happening because the NBA decided so. The draft lottery results come from odds percentages that determine a team’s chances of earning the No. 1 pick in the ping pong ball draw. There have been changes to the odds system over the years to discourage tanking, one reason that the teams with the worst record don’t always win the lottery.
Flagg likely landing in Dallas caused conspiracy theories to appear everywhere on Monday. But in reality, the league has been transparent about its fair process that is annually witnessed by plenty of credible sources, and in all likelihood, far too much would have to go into rigging the lottery to pull it off while keeping it from everybody involved with the NBA.
